The Road to 85 (where we discover that the numbers always work themselves out)

Discussion in 'DVU' started by cuwoodchipper, Feb 3, 2016.

Watchers:
This thread is being watched by 34 users.
  1. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    OK, thought we could keep a running thread of scholarship numbers and what next year's class looks like from a room standpoint.

    I have us at 87 right now, and that includes Huegal and Adrien Dunn (two players who were not on scholarship last fall).

    If we experience attrition in excess of two players this offseason (which I expect is a slam dunk), fall scholarship candidates include:

    David Estes (SR, starting LS)
    Sean Mac Lain (SR, backup WR)
    Zach Riggs (JR, backup C)
    Seth Ryan (JR, starting holder)
    Cade Steward (FR, greyshirt commit)

    Nine guys are currently slated to come off the books next year:

    Nick Schuessler
    Germone Hopper
    Jordan Leggett
    Jay Guillermo
    Carlos Watkins
    Ben Boulware
    Cordrea Tankersley
    Jadar Johnson
    Andy Teasdale

    There are also four guys who are NFL candidates:

    Deshaun Watson
    Wayne Gallman
    Artavis Scott
    Mike Williams

    Finally, we have the "we only owe you four years" guys:

    Tyshon Dye
    Adrien Dunn
    DJ Greenlee
    Dane Rogers
    Marcus Edmond

    One final note: Of our 87 scholarship players, 62 will be sophomores or freshmen.
     
  2. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    Historic attrition numbers (players who left Clemson before exhausting their eligibility). Includes dismissals, injury related retirement, quitters, early grads, and NFL money chasers.

    2012 - 7 players
    2013 - 9 players
    2014 - 8 players
    2015 - 8 players
    2016 - 11 players (so far)
     
    clemsonvianj likes this.
  3. Styx

    Styx
    Expand Collapse
    Pour the bourbon and let the season begin.
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,263
    I read this as follows -- "We should absolutely be signing 25 player full classes every year!". Which I certainly agree with.
     
    Phil Miller likes this.
  4. Codename Duchess

    Codename Duchess
    Expand Collapse

    Likes Received:
    6,548
    Could Dropper be out?

    The Clemson Insider has learned through multiple sources that Clemson wide receiver Germone Hopper has not reported to any team functions this week, and has not been in class either.

    At this time it is not known if Hopper has left the team or not. All we have been told is that the team has not heard from him despite multiple attempts to contact him. We have learned through one source that Hopper is enrolled in spring classes at this time as well as being enrolled for summer classes, too.
     
  5. Papa

    Papa
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,363
    Damn...that almost sounds like we need to call the cops and report him missing.
     
    Krombopulus Michael likes this.
  6. HotButteredGrits

    HotButteredGrits
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    11,646
    They can find him on Twitter today.

     
  7. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    Probably keeps dropping the phone everytime he tries to answer.

    Would not shed a tear.
     
  8. cut68

    cut68
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,314
    But @kylebw7 says he's awesome
     
  9. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    Dane Rogers gone. At 86 now, 10 spots open for 2017.
     
  10. triceratops

    triceratops
    Expand Collapse

    Likes Received:
    3,628
    I prefer to keep Hooper. He isn't great, but he can contribute and nothing is gained by losing a rising SR at this point.
     
    Styx likes this.
  11. kylebw7

    kylebw7
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,319
    Does that 86 include heugel?
     
  12. triceratops

    triceratops
    Expand Collapse

    Likes Received:
    3,628
    I would be curious to see this number year over year.

    You bring in 20-25 FR, plus 20-25 FR the previous year who are either rFR or SO plus whoever RS from the year before that and you are always typically going to have a lot more players that are FR and SO than JR and SR. Attrition always hits JR/SR harder. I would anticipate somewhere 65% or 55 would be typical, but that is just a guess.

    We are definitely high, but way out of wack compared to other top tier programs would be my guess.
     
  13. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    I disagree. I think his reps could go to a more talented player (probably a younger guy who could use some game action).
    Yes.
     
    SackLodge likes this.
  14. cut68

    cut68
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,314
    I disagree. Depth chart is crowded at WR, there's tons of experience coming back and I'd rather see what a talented Freshman has than wait on Hopper to drop a ball in a big game
     
    TheTigerMan likes this.
  15. kylebw7

    kylebw7
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,319
    Why lose Hopper. Sounds like he may be gone either way but if we're already down to 86 why leave a scholly open when he's gone after this year anyway? Let someone else who doesn't contribute at all leave
     
  16. triceratops

    triceratops
    Expand Collapse

    Likes Received:
    3,628
    I believe the cream will rise to the top. If a FR is a better choice and should play over another player then the coaches will play the FR.

    I don't really see what you gain by removing a bullet from your gun when you can't replace it with another bullet unless you believe the coaches mismanage the depth chart and playing time. Renfrow (and Cain) getting PT at the expense of older players (Hopper) to me shows that the offensive coaches are not afraid to play younger players when they earn it and prove to be better options.

    Personally would rather have Hopper against Auburn as a option then just Renfrow and a FR. Not that Hopper is great (Kyle), but that he is at least a serviceable player and you are not opening up a spot for anybody but a walk-on by him leaving.

    Now if he is being an idiot then he shouldn't get any rope and should be gone.
     
    NST likes this.
  17. MedicalTiger

    MedicalTiger
    Expand Collapse
    Pessimist, MD
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    2,532
    [​IMG]
     
    Doc Louis, budkilmer and cuz28 like this.
  18. Aitch

    Aitch
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    1,817
    I don't have Dunn, but have one less; not sure who I an missing
    image.png
     
    clemsontyger04 likes this.
  19. hawk217

    hawk217
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,261
    I would put powell behind cain, in front if hopper :wellbye:
     
    cut68 likes this.
  20. Dirty Ears Bill

    Dirty Ears Bill
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    12,987
    Not trying to be a dick because I think this chart is great, but my OCD is kicking in:

    *Leggett
    *Giella
    *Tankersley
    *Lamar
    *Edmund
    *Israel
    *Mullen
     
  21. kylebw7

    kylebw7
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,319
    Israel almost has to transfer
     
  22. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
  23. cut68

    cut68
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,314
    Who is Dunn
     
  24. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    Former Daniel walk-on WR. Was put on scholarship after JJ McCullough was kicked out.

    Unclear if it's just for the spring or ongoing but he's probably gone after the 2016 season anyway (will be his fourth year).
     
  25. Phil Miller

    Phil Miller
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    2,766
    Think dunn will keep his scholarship.
     
  26. Aitch

    Aitch
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    1,817
    Thanks. I've updated.
    image.png
     
    Dirty Ears Bill likes this.
  27. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    Let's talk positional allocation. Here's what I see as an ideal breakdown:

    QB: 4 (we have 5)
    RB: 6 (we have 5)
    WR: 9 (we have 12 with Dunn)
    TE: 5 (we have 6)
    OL: 18 (we have 13)
    DE: 9 (we have 9)
    DT: 8 (we have 6)
    LB: 10 (we have 10)
    CB: 8 (we have 9)
    S: 7 (we have 8)
    P: 1 (we have 1)
    K: 1 (we have 2)

    Under my breakdown, here's what we need to take in 2017:

    QB: 1 (Watson and Schus leaving) - Have verbals from 2.
    RB: 2 (Gallman leaving)
    WR: 1 (Scott, Williams, Dunn, Hopper leaving)
    TE: 0 (Leggett leaving)
    OL: 6 - (Guillermo leaving) - Have verbals from 3, plus Stewart.
    DT: 3 (Watkins leaving)
    DE: 0 (No one leaving)
    LB: 1 (Boulware leaving)
    CB: 0 (Tank leaving)
    S: 0 (Johnson leaving) - Have verbal from 1.
    P: 1 (Teasdale leaving)

    86-14 = 72

    Obviously, not going to happen that way and you'd think this will all change due to attrition throughout the year. We'll be top heavy at WR/CB/S takes due to talent available, but overloading those positions will impact numbers elsewhere.

    I picture the 2017 signing class unfolding like this:

    QB: 2 (would give us 5 in 2017)
    RB: 1 (would give us 5 in 2017)
    WR: 3 (would give us 11 in 2017)
    TE: 1 (would give us 6 in 2017)
    OL: 5 (would give us 17 in 2017)
    DE: 1 (would give us 10 in 2017)
    DT: 2 (would give us 7 in 2017)
    LB: 2 (would give us 11 in 2017)
    CB: 2 (would give us 10 in 2017)
    S: 2 (would give us 9 in 2017)
    P: 1 (would give us 1 in 2017)
    K: 0 (would give us 2 in 2017)

    That gives us a 22 man class, which is probably close to what we'll sign. That means to get my numbers in balance, we'd need the following attrition (9 players) in the next 16 months:

    QB: Israel
    TE: Greenlee (might graduate early)
    DE: Register
    LB: Williams
    CB: Edmond, ?
    S: ?, ?
    K: Spence

    Thoughts?

    Totally unrelated to the above post, I'm already in offseason withdrawal.
     
  28. kylebw7

    kylebw7
    Expand Collapse
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,319
    Is Artavis a given to leave early?
     
  29. triceratops

    triceratops
    Expand Collapse

    Likes Received:
    3,628
    I wouldn't think so, Art is definitely a high caliber player, but doesn't scream top pick yet to me. Not an über athlete either that will wow scouts with measurables. Hasn't been dynamic down the field excelling in short and intermediate routes which are rarer in the NFL.

    Clearly below Sammy, Nuk, Williams.

    I could see him going though because he is without question a draftable prospect and his stock might be maxed out next year with Watson.
     
    kylebw7 likes this.
  30. Cutig

    Cutig
    Expand Collapse
    My name is Rod, and I like to party
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    9,725
    I could see him leaving with Watson. Thankfully we just reload at WR now and should have plenty of fantastic players to choose from. RRM will be ready by then.
     
    kylebw7 likes this.
  31. Styx

    Styx
    Expand Collapse
    Pour the bourbon and let the season begin.
    RCUSA Original

    Likes Received:
    4,263
    I think if Scott stays healthy all year, something that hindered his production and development this year, he could have a monster season. He is a very physically strong player for his size. He will get a pretty good draft grade. Wouldn't be surprised to see him as a solid second round guy. NFL teams will take major notice in him as a highly productive WR from Clemson.
     
    NST likes this.
  32. NST

    NST
    Expand Collapse

    Likes Received:
    3,485

    Agreed. He would have had a much better and more impressive season if healthy. Definitely would still have flaws but if he was a flawed player coming off 1200 yards he'd have a lot of draft buzz.

    Think having Williams and Cain to open the underneath for him will be huge
     
    Styx likes this.
  33. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    I'm going to say Hopper is done.

    85.
     
    a congressman likes this.
  34. cuwoodchipper

    cuwoodchipper
    Expand Collapse
    First 38

    Likes Received:
    13,567
    Chalmers, we barely knew ye.

    84. Nowhere to go but down from here.
     
    TheTigerMan, clemsontyger04 and Cutig like this.

Users Viewing Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 0)