Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night ... The Weather is Discussed

Discussion in 'DVU' started by HotButteredGrits, Aug 18, 2015.

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  1. statebird

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    Are TS's the same as hurricanes in that it's worse to be on the NE side of the eye? If so that latest track west is bad for Gville, though I'm sure it will change a few more times.

    Edit: it is.
     
    #1121 statebird, Sep 7, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2017
  2. Dirty Ears Bill

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    It would probably just feel like a bad tstorm by the time it got to Gville. I feel bad for Florida but selfishly am happy about this newest shift.
     
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  3. statebird

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    Euro calling for wind gusts to 60 mph in Gville with the latest shift, pretty damaging winds that would almost surely knock power out for much of the area. Selfishly need it to keep shifting west
     
  4. Cutig

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    Yeah it'd be much worse than a bad tstorm
     
  5. Tigerchan

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    I live in Florida now. I hope it turns back east. Take that you mother fuckers.
     
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  6. Dirty Ears Bill

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    You're the weather guy so I'll defer to you, but 60 mph gusts is pretty much the definition of a severe thunderstorm.
     
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  7. Cutig

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    Itd probably be classified as a tropical storm, so a really really big bad tstorm. Will be interesting to see how long it holds together while it goes in deep on Florida. NHC has the winds still at cat 1 as it moves through GA
     
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  8. 19B

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    A jelly doughnut?
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    Are you in Del Boca Vista? I was told it was full.
     
  9. statebird

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    Aren't models guidance on hurricane intensity still lacking? Feel like I've heard they are and they take a lot of tweaking by forecasters who mainly use images and dropsondes when possible.
     
  10. 19B

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    The 5pm update now has me staying in the Lowcountry and smoking a Prime brisket on Saturday in time for the game that night. I'm pretty fickle.
     
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  11. cuangler

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    Where'd you score that @19B
     
  12. tboon6317

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    Whenever feasible, one should try to eat the rude.
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    So is the Pee Dee area safe? I mean obviously we're hard motherfuckers on those mean streets, but I'm out of the loop as to how bad it could get up the coast and inland a little bit.
     
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  13. Cutig

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    Yeah you can't take much from the models in terms of intensity. It's a beast of a hurricane, so I'd bet it stays strong for a while. Maybe because Florida is a peninsula it can keep pulling moisture from the ocean?
     
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  14. Cutig

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  15. Cutig

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    Still time, but the west shift was really good for SC
     
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  16. 19B

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    Costco. Even stranger is that Costco had Prime brisket at $3.99/lb, and had Choice in a different cooler at $5.79. I felt like I was stealing from somebody who didn't know any better. I grabbed this one around a month ago, so it's ready for some action.
     
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  17. statebird

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    Except the upstate
     
  18. AC-

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    We must have been at Costco on the same day. It was a ridiculously good deal.
     
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  19. Cutig

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    Idk, current track keeps it in GA compared to the earlier one that had it plowing through the center of the state
     
  20. statebird

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    Just need it to go far enough west that we are out of that NW quadrant when it comes through
     
  21. clemsontyger04

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    Two Offensive Coordinators are better than 1
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    Still say if you're in Charleston, Savannah, or HHI you need to evacuate.
     
  22. a congressman

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    For a good 6 months, Walmart near my house had 100rds of Federal 9mm for like $10. 50rds for $20.
     
  23. Billdozer

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    Pretty big western kick.

     
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  24. Cutig

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    Yup. Low pressure system is just sucking it up and to the west. Guess we'll have troopers available to help with traffic
     
  25. Tigerchan

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    Why? It's going to be a massively weakened storm by the time it gets there at this point. Charleston is barely going to feel this thing.
     
  26. statebird

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    Seems like a good idea that they waited to make the call. The cone can shift, but at this point seems silly to send people from the lower state to the upstate when we may be dealing with more issues.

    Charleston/Grand Strand will still get a lot
    of rain and some storm surge, but still...
     
  27. HotButteredGrits

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    Interesting that McMaster spoke to all the state agencies yesterday about his "plans" and so they all went out and announced it. NOW we find out he was only explaining what "may" be his plan. All the agencies had to backtrack/correct their announcements. #FakeNews
     
  28. tigerpride

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    From the state climate office this morning...


    Good Morning,

    Guardedly optimistic. Irma still has to make a right turn then a swing to the left 36 hours later.

    Off NHC's 0500 advisory, Hurricane Irma is 825 miles SE of Beaufort tracking W at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph in a raggedy double eyewall structure. The official NHC track has shifted dramatically since yesterday as the well-advertised turn to the north appears to be occurring later and slower. The models may have caught on to the fact that big storm making big turns slow down. Slowing Irma down will allow Irma to interact with an upper level short wave diving out of the Central Plains (the square states) that will pull Irma NW. The NNW turn starts Saturday morning taking Irma square up the middle of the Florida peninsula Sunday and Monday. Before and during the turn, Irma will be in an environment that will support 150-150 winds before Florida landfall. The models are in very good agreement. Even the US GFS and Euro ECMWF operational models are playing nice; but it is the consensus models (TCON, TCVN, TCVX and HCCA for those keeping score) that have been the most consistent. The Navy NAVGEM shows an even more dramatic westward track shift over the GoMex. Go Navy.

    Intensity forecasting for hurricanes are somewhat tricky but usually frictional effects and detachment from the warm thermal mass of the ocean work together to reduce intensity. As Irma treks NNW over Florida, the hurricane will encounter and entrain cool dry air currently parked over the South Carolina and that other peach state; yet another strike against Irma. In addition to the complicated 2-turn scenario, usually hurricanes spinning down over land have their tropical storm force wind field expand, that even on this guardedly optimistic track, could still reach out and touch South Carolina in addition to the residual storm surge developed off the eastern coast of Florida Sunday and Monday.
     
  29. kylebw7

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    My sister was coming here but now that the weather looks shitty here too she's going to dc and got tickets to eagles skins game. She's spoiled
     
  30. statebird

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  31. Cutig

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    No big changes. Up Florida and west over Atlanta. 2p nhc looks to be the exact same thing
     
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  32. statebird

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    So that's three Euro models that have shown the western track now. What's your confidence the eye/center moves west of the upstate area?

    Sounds like major models in pretty good Agreement, no?
     
  33. Cutig

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    The cone from the nhc seems to be avoiding SC, maybe all but the western edge in the mountains. Eye likely goes well west if the general trend holds up. If it got that far east it'd be weak enough that it doesn't seem likely to have widespread damage. Tornado and heavy rain threat still exists.
     
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  34. Tigerchan

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    Pray for me guys. I'm going to have to ride this thing out here in Florida. Not going to be able to evacuate.
     
  35. Cutig

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    Which side of Florida?
     

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